The latest indication based on the chart shown here is that the end is in sight.  Inventory is at record lows (less than a 2 month supply in most areas). It is significant that Short Sales and REOs are also way down (as a percentage of the active listings). In fact, with the exception of Walnut Creek and perhaps surprisingly, Alamo and Danville, all of our cities are down to single digit numbers of distressed properties.

And look at the number of Sales Agreed compared to the number of homes available. This gives us the number of months inventory available and it is certainly not a lot. Homes really are selling fast in the San Ramon Valley and Lamorinda.

If you still have doubts as to where the market stands now, ask any real estate agent. They all say that everything is selling like crazy, there is no inventory and multiple offers are becoming the norm. Many have a familiar lament (one that was common back in 2006) … “I’ve written 10 offers for this buyer and we keep getting beat out by offers well over list price”.

So how does this affect you as a potential buyer or a seller? If you are a seller you must realize that now is an opportune time to list your home for sale and realize a price higher than in years. It still needs to be prepared for sale and professionally marketed for sale but the return should be worth the effort.

As a buyer, you should see that we probably have “hit bottom” (in fact we may well be viewing the bottom from the other side on the way back up now). And as has always been the case, you need to be lender approved before you write any offers. One point you really have to bear in mind is that the List Price will probably only be a “starting place” in many cases. Most desirable homes that are being listed for sale now are getting multiple offers within days and sale prices are getting agreed above list price.

I recently listed a pleasant, but unexceptional home for sale in San Ramon. The kitchen was updated and it was well-maintained and I listed it at the price I thought it was worth as was supported by comparable recent sales. We held an Open House the first weekend after listing and had around 50 groups through – more than any Open House I have held in the last 10 years! 3 offers were received virtually immediately and we agreed a sale a little over list price on exactly the terms my sellers wanted. This is not an unusual situation now and it shows exactly where the market is.

When Incontro opened here a few years ago, they took a big risk. This location seemed to have the kiss of death for restaurateurs. But Incontro changed all that and subsequently moved to a prime location in Danville.

La Finestra is a different kind of restaurant to Incontro though. Yes, it is Italian, but with a strong Sicilian influence so the menu is quite different. Sylvia and I had previously eaten at their Lafayette restaurant and enjoyed it, although we did not think it was exceptional. And the premises are more traditional in Lafayette.

The San Ramon location is much more modern with a striking exterior, stylish dining room with warm colors, wood paneling and a small bar area and generally a very appealing ambiance.

The menu has a lot of choice  in all courses and fish and seafood in particular, are well represented. We decided to pass on the appetizers so as to leave room for dessert (always a good test for an Italian restaurant) although we did take advantage of the complimentary warm focaccia bread with an olive oil and balsamic vinegar based dipping sauce. Very fresh and full of flavor.

For an entrée, Sylvia chose the Chicken Breast Stuffed with Pancetta, Sage and Provolone Cheese in a Chianti Wine Sauce, a generous portion and not too heavy on the red wine. She pronounced it to be excellent. I had the “Gamberoni alla Diavola” – Jumbo Prawns Sautéed with Roasted Red and Yellow Bell Peppers and Onion in a Spicy Garlic Tomato Sauce. This was absolutely delicious. The sauce was reminiscent of a ratatouille although a little more subtle in flavor. Both dishes were accompanied by Rosemary Roasted Potatoes, Pine nuts, Raisins and Sautéed Garlic Vegetables. The pine nuts and raisins are definitely a Sicilian touch. Everything was really tasty and cooked to perfection. We accompanied our meal with a bottle of Acacia Carneros Chardonnay that we had brought with us. They charge a reasonable $15 corkage fee and unless you like Italian wines, which dominate the wine list, you may want to follow our example.

Our waiter suggested the semifreddo as a dessert and we were very happy that we took his recommendation. A generous portion of coffee ice cream set on a zabaglione cream custard and topped with a paper thin waffle. They take their desserts seriously at La Finestra.

We enjoyed our visit here very much and I was surprised to read other reviews of La Finestra on Yelp.com that are not so favorable but I suspect that they may have been written shortly after their opening, while they were sorting out some teething problems. Certainly, we have nothing but good to say about this restaurant and we will definitely be back. You can read more about them, see lots of photos  and check out the menu on their website at www.lafinestraristorante.com.

A new Mediterranean restaurant in Danville! The name may suggest that it is a Greek restaurant (as Santorini is a Greek Island) but a glance a the menu will soon show you otherwise.

Santorini is the creation of the owners of Silk Road in Walnut Creek, a restaurant that Sylvia and I visit quite frequently so we were very interested to compare the two.

Santorini is located at the back of Town & Country Shopping Center on San Ramon Valley Blvd. It is on the second floor, next to El Nido and a big bonus is the outdoor seating under a covered deck where they have a good supply of heaters.

On our first visit, early on a Friday evening, we were surprised to see that it was already fairly full and there was a strong buzz of conversation. And this not a small restaurant. I would guess at least 80 seats inside plus a pleasant bar as well as the outside patio seating I mentioned above. They had only been open around a week or two, and I had seen no advertising at all but Danville seems to have discovered it quickly and the attendance level must be pretty encouraging for the owners.

One is immediately struck by the pleasant ambiance created by the colorful décor (including an enormous mural of the island of Santorini). It was apparent that  it has a more upmarket feel than Silk Road, which is also much smaller.

Once we were seated, a quick glance at the menu showed it to be virtually identical to the Silk Road menu. No complaints there as we have always enjoyed the food at Silk Road.

The menu is large and varied and includes numerous Greek and other Mediterranean dishes, stews, pasta and pizzas. There is also a variety of appetizers although Sylvia and I went straight to the main course.

Sylvia ordered Mousaka for her entrée, while I chose the rack of lamb. We had never had the Mousaka  at Silk Road so couldn’t compare that but Sylvia said it was at least as good as any Mousaka she had tasted. It was a very generous size portion as well.

My rack of lamb was also quite delicious and again, an extremely generous portion. Both dishes were served with garlic mashed potatoes and vegetables.

Everything here tastes fresh and of good quality ingredients. They even make their own pita bread (which is delicious). Prices are good too. Far less than you would expect to pay for food of this quality, and such generous servings.

Perhaps because of the serving sizes we chose not to have a dessert, opting to finish our wine instead, while we just relaxed and enjoyed the surroundings.

As we were leaving, the manager asked us if everything had been enjoyable. He was very much in evidence throughout the evening and is obviously committed to making it a success. I don’t think it will be too difficult for him. They have a good, varied menu, pleasant surroundings, quality food and good prices. A combination that goes together bery well. Check out their excellent website at www.santorinidanville.com where you can see their menus and more.

Right from the start of the year it was apparent that buyers had suddenly decided that the time to take action had arrived. It started slowly then accelerated like a rocket! Any desirable homes up to around a million dollars were getting multiple offers if they were priced right. What was it that catalyzed the change?

I think a lot of it is about frustration. I know many of the buyers I have been helping have wanted to move for a year or to but there was always that uncertainty about prices. Had we really bottomed out? Was there going to be a “double-dip” in the economy? What about the foreclosures and the supposed “shadow inventory” that the banks were holding back? Would we see a flood of distressed properties dumped on the market with a resulting collapse of prices?

It seems that buyers decided that it really is not all gloom and despondency in the real estate market. The headlines in the national press (and even the regional press) did not apply to the San Ramon Valley. Real Estate really is local so there was really no good reason to wait any longer. It was time to buy again.

All of this should have been great for the local economy. When people buy homes in large volume, many local businesses benefit. Home improvement stores like Home Depot and Lowes do well as do the paint stores and furniture stores. It all makes for a great knock-on effect.

But there was a problem. Historically, people who have unsold homes in late November tend to take them off the market for the Holidays and then put them back on in March or April. There are also relatively few new listings early in the year because many people spend the first few months getting their homes ready to sell in early spring. So we had a large pool of would be buyers looking at a very low level of inventory. The result was that any homes that were properly  prepared for sale, professionally presented and priced right were selling in a matter of days with multiple offers. All of this is borne out by the chart here.

The area covered is from Alamo to San Ramon over the period October 2011 through March 2012. The line graph shows numbers of sales agreed over this period, and as you can see this just took off rapidly from the beginning of the year. Sold properties lagged behind by a month, which is exactly what you would expect based on a typical 30-35 day escrow period, but numbers of homes for sale has  stayed constant over this period. Inventory is being bought up but it is not getting replaced at anywhere near the rate it needs to be in order to cope with demand.

With multiple offers in a sellers market, the outcome is generally increased prices and indeed we are seeing that  happen. Until recently, we could rest assured that prices would be controlled by realistic (or even pessimistic) appraisals but this does not seem to be the case here. I have recently seen homes appraising at values that have surprised me. Not only that but when homes have failed to appraise at full price, I have seen buyer ans seller split the difference and I have seen the buyer just accept it and bring more money to close the transaction. Sellers do not want to lose the home when they see an appreciating market.

The big question is “What will happen now?” I think we will continue to see prices rising, at least though May, and then provided we get more homes listed for sale, prices will probably stabilize. As for the rest of the year, it is hard to predict. I know that if I was thinking about making a move, I would want to get my home on the market as fast as possible to take advantage of this wild, wild market.

Inventory Chart

If you read the national press you could believe that real estate is still in a pretty bad way. Foreclosures, Short Sales, declining prices et., etc. And then if you live in the San Ramon Valley and you decide it may be time to move, you probably can’t find anything to buy that you can afford. What is going on here?

The explanation, as is so often the case, is that “Real Estate Is Local”.

Anything you read about real estate prices, inventory levels, short sales and foreclosures is probably meaningless regardless of where you live. The press like to print stories full of gloom and despondency but really, how could you expect to see any similarity in real estate markets from California to New York, or North Dakota to Texas? You can’t even see much similarity from Brentwood to San Ramon!

So what does the market look like as we move into spring, 2012? What is likely to happen to real estate values this year? To get the answers to these questions, it helps to look at some data that is extracted from the Multiple Listing Service.

The Inventory Chart shows the number of months supply of single family homes in Alamo, Danville and San Ramon from December 2010 to February 2012 and it looks like it has been a wild ride. Much of the fluctuation has been due to the banks releasing foreclosed homes on to the market. Or not, as the case may be. Certainly there was a good choice of homes to buy last September, but it has been downhill all the way since then. And in February, we had an all-tim low. This really does indicate a very strong sellers market. Any real estate agent working in this area will tell you that there is no shortage of buyers about but there is very little for them to buy. And if interest rates click upwards, that could bring more buyers into the market, keen to buy before they go higher.

So what about prices? Historically, supply and demand have worked in real estate just like any other commodity. Where demand exceeds supply you get rising prices.

Take a look at the second chart. This shows the average sale price per square foot over the same period, and this is remarkably consistent. I suggest that there could be two reasons for this. First, the bank owned homes and short sales tend to sell at lower prices than regular sales and second, appraisers are far more conservative than they used to be with their valuations. I know of numerous situations where homes failed to appraise at an agreed price and further negotiations took place before the sale closed.

So based on all this, unless we see a lot more homes coming on to the market, which I doubt, sellers can expect to sell fairly quickly but prices will continue very much where they are today.

Of all types of cuisine, I have to say that French food is my favorite but it also has to be noted that it tends to be more expensive than many of the alternatives. Even so, the cost is well justified for a special occasion, particularly when the experience turns out to be exceptional.

And so Sylvia and I found ourselves parked right outside this bijou cottage on a Lafayette side street just off Mount Diablo Boulevard where we had come to celebrate Sylvia’s birthday.

This was our first visit to Artisan Bistro and having checked out their website (where we noted that it was Michelin recommended) and read the reviews on Yelp, we were anticipating a pleasant evening.

I am very happy to report that we were not disappointed.

As I previously mentioned, the restaurant is in what was originally a Lafayette cottage and much of the old character has been retained with assorted dining areas and a small but very attractive bar area. The ambiance is definitely “casual but up=market bistro”. The entrance is by way of a path that runs around the building to the back door, passing by a most attractive outdoor dining patio that I imagine is very well used in the warmer months. Then passing through the bar area, you find yourself in the center of the restaurant..

We were seated immediately and were immediately impressed by the friendly service and the warm abiance.

To start, we shared a duo of Sonoma foie gras, one portion being a terrine and the other seared. This was the perfect first course, light and  full of flavor.

For entrees, Sylvia chose what the menu describes as “Snake River Wagyu Rib eye Cap & Braised Short Rib”. Wagyu beef is very similar to Kobe beef but bred in America and this was a portion of the tenderest part of the ribeye, together with a portion of short ribs, all served on a red wine jus. Very tender and tasty.

My entrée was the “Sonoma Rabbit Three Ways”. That is a bacon wrapped loin, a terrine from the shoulder meat and a country fried leg. Interestingly (and pleasingly) all boneless and also served on a jus. I rarely get the opportunity for rabbit and this is as good as it gets. Both dishes were accompanied by a selection of mushrooms and baby vegetables and everything was cooked to absolute perfection.

We are not generally big dessert eaters but it was a celebratory meal so we shared a “Roasted Brioche & Orange Bread Pudding”. This was really a dish to set the taste buds tingling. I really do recommend this one.

All of this was accompanied by a bottle of Layer Cake Chardonnay that was priced at a reasonable $35.

While not a restaurant you would generally go to every month, Artisan Bistro is the perfect venue for an intimate meal for two and in my opinion is as good as any restaurant in Lamorinda or the San Ramon Valley, regardless of price.  And I have to say it cost less than I had expected. It is certainly no more expensive than many lesser restaurants.

Check out their excellent web site at www.artisanlafayette.com and don’t miss the galleries of photos there.

Many sellers are unsure as to which is the better way to go and my advice is always to consult with your financial advisor and/or a real estate attorney. The observations here should also help.

The questions people first ask when considering giving up their home are (a) what future liability could they have for the debt and (b) what will be the effect on their credit rating. In fact there are other factors that should also be considered.

A Foreclosure can effect your ability to get a job (or sometimes to keep your job). It will show up on a background check by a potential employer and is a serious challenge if you need security clearance. With a Foreclosure on your record, you are unlikely to be able to finance another home purchase for five years, while those home owners who have sold with a Short Sale may be able to finance a home in  two years or even less in some circumstances.

But what about the effect on your credit? It is interesting that the major hit on your credit score is likely to come from late mortgage payments rather than anything else. If you can keep making payments while going through the Short Sale process, the effect on your credit score will be minimized.

You will inevitable have late payments with a Foreclosure of course. Without late payments, the Foreclosure process can’t even get started.

Now as to the question of future liability for remaining debt after Foreclosure or a Short Sale, this is a fairly complex issue and much depends on the type of financing you have.

As a result of recent legislation, when you sell a home via the Short Sale process, all your liabilities should be wiped out. That is regardless of the existence of a second lien on the home. When the first lien holder forecloses on your home, they also lose the right to chase you for any outstanding debt, but if there is a second lien holder, they will almost certainly pursue you and they have a legal right to do so, if they are not a party to the Foreclosure.

The biggest issue may be the uncertainty associated with a Short Sale. You just don’t know if your lender will agree to it. But the good news is that many banks really are getting their act together at last. And the government is also helping in this regard. More Short Sales are being approved these days and we are increasingly seeing pre-approved Short Sales that really do take away a lot of the stress.

If, as a seller, you want to have the best chance of completing a Short Sale, you absolutely have to have a listing agent who has experience in these transactions. More Short Sales fail to close because of the agent’s lack of experience than for any other reason.

Buying a Short Sale

Now let’s look at Short Sales from the buyer’s perspective. How does this differ from a regular home purchase?

The first thing you have to remember that the home owner is still the seller, not the bank, although the bank (sometimes more than one bank) has to approve the sale. But the homeowner should have little concern for the sale price. They will just get to walk away from the home free and clear when escrow closes. Their debts have been wiped out.

The price will be what the bank will accept after an appraisal has been done by them. So at least in theory, you should pay no more than true market value. This should take into consideration that it is an “as is” sale. No repairs will be carried out regardless of condition.

The transaction will take some time. From agreement to the sale by the seller to approval from the bank will typically be between one and four months, sometimes longer. But there are some good buys to be had in Short Sales. A lot of buyers don’t have the patience so you have less competition and that is a big consideration in today’s market where we are so short of inventory.

 If you are thinking about buying or selling anywhere in the San Ramon Valley or Lamorinda and you need advice on any aspect of the process, give me a call and I’ll arrange to meet with you and evaluate your situation.

At last! A really first-class Indian Restaurant in San Ramon. I have been waiting over 20 years for this.

It seems that Indian Restaurants come and go with alarming regularity in San Ramon. Some seem to only last a matter of weeks, while others close down after a year or so but it all comes down to quality and consistency at the end of the day.

As my regular readers know, I am a major enthusiast when it comes to Indian Food (what else would you expect from a Brit? – our national dish is now Chicken Tikka Masala!). So when I learned that another new Indian restaurant had opened in San Ramon, I was eager to check it out. It didn’t take me very long!

Within 5 days of it opening, Sylvia and I went there for dinner with our daughter Michelle and two friends, all of us being Indian food fans. The first thing we observed was the high standard of décor – very stylish and quite understated. The location is good too, being virtually next door to Max’s Café on Camino Ramon where there is ample parking. Available.

We anticipated that they would not have a wine license yet, so we took our own wine with us. What we hadn’t anticipated was that they would have no wine glasses but this did not phase them at all. They immediately sent somebody off to nearby Marshall’s to get some. Now that is what I call service.

The menu has many familiar selections on it but also quite a few less familiar ones. For appetizers, we shared a variety of dishes – Coriander Mari (Calamari), Chicken Pakoras and Vegetable Samosas. All were really good but the Calamari was outstanding. Very fresh and tender in a light batter. Some of the best Calamari I have tasted.

We all had curries of one kind or another as a main course. I chose the Chicken Coconut Curry, a very mild dish but with outstanding depth of flavor (I prefer subtle curries). The others went for Chicken Vindaloo, Chicken Tikka Masala and Lamb Tikka Masala. Everybody was impressed.

If your taste for Indian food runs to the super hot, blow your head off kind, this may not be the best place for you, but if, like me, you prefer the flavorful dishes that are spicy without having an excess of heat, I can promise you will not be disappointed.

I mentioned that the menu had some less familiar dishes on it. These include Fish Pakoras, Seafood Biryani, Lamb Shank Masala and Fish Tikka Masala among others. They also have a wide selection of vegetarian dishes.

Prices were fairly typical of most Indian restaurants in the area and service was excellent. They are very friendly and helpful with an obvious desire to make sure you enjoy your meal.

Really, I can’t speak highly enough of Divan. It really is the best Indian restaurant food I have tasted in California and I have visited a lot of Indian Restaurants. They have another, well-established, location in Seattle plus another newer one in Fremont. I’m sure that with this kind of service and food, they are here to stay in San Ramon.  That isn’t just my opinion either. Check out the reviews on Yelp. They are getting a lot of fans.

In most cases, right now is the best time.

If you are considering selling your home soon you probably have good reason. So the benefits of selling now almost always outweigh the extra cost, inconvenience and stress of waiting. It’s not worth putting your whole life on hold to avoid losing an amount of money which can be a lot less than you fear it will be.

There’s a general perception that the annual real estate calendar has consistent low points, such as the week before Christmas, school holidays or throughout winter. The truth is that while there are a few quiet spots to avoid, they can change from year to year and in different markets. The quality of the marketing your home receives normally has a far greater impact on the final sale price than any fluctuations in the market.

You will get the best price for your home by showing it to the maximum possible number

of quality potential buyers, and following up strongly with them. So if your real estate agent just ‘does the usual stuff’ to market your home, the sale price will suffer no matter what time of year you sell.

But when you have an agent who really knows how to market your home to the hilt, using the latest technology, you will normally overcome any seasonal fluctuations and get a better price as well.

With a well planned marketing campaign, you will have the right mix of advertising to get your home in front of the greatest number of quality potential buyers. When I market a home for sale, I use a number of different methods to increase the demand for your property, including a high quality full color buyer brochure.

Let me know if you haven’t seen one of my buyer brochures and I’ll send you a copy.

Think about your reasons for selling your home – they are clearly important. What impact would it have on your lifestyle if you put everything on hold for 2, 3, 6 months or even longer while you wait for the ‘perfect time’ to sell your home? How much cost, inconvenience and stress would this create for you?

Weigh that up against the amount of money you expect to lose by selling now. And remember that if your home is marketed well, you may not lose anything. You may be very pleasantly surprised.

I hope that helps and please feel free to contact me if you have any questions related to getting your home sold.

I’m sure that many will be glad to see the end of 2011. Last year was a year of a very slowly recovering economy with short sales and foreclosures dominating the real estate landscape. Did things get better or worse during the course of the year? Read on and find out.

Lets take a look at the cost of an average detached single family homes in some of our major areas at the start of 2011 and see what that really means as well as monitoring the change as we leave the year behind.

The Danville Market

100 such homes sold in Danville in the first quarter of 2011 with prices ranging from $467,000 to $1.95m, an average price of $877,423.

An example of what you could expect to buy for $870,000 is the home illustrated here.

This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath single level home in Leander Hills with 2322 sq.ft. of living space, was very nicely updated and set on a lot approaching a half acre with manicured grounds.

Flash forward to the last quarter. There we see that 135 homes were sold. Prices ranged from $382,500 to $1.74m, an average of $812,875. So the average price appears to have fallen but what would that buy?

Try a 5 bed, 3 bath home in Sycamore.

With 2751 sq.ft. and a lot of just over a third acre, this home was also very nicely updated. Overall though, probably not quite as appealing as the one previously mentioned which might suggest little real change in prices although volume of sales was up by 35%.

The San Ramon Market

Like Danville, real estate activity in San Ramon is closely related to the quality of schools although historically, prices in San Ramon have always been rather less than in Danville

Here, In the first quarter of 2011, we saw 133 homes sold with prices from $392,500 to  $2.8m. The average was $767,768 and for around that figure you could have got a completely updated home in Bollinger Hills with

5 beds, 3 baths and 2776 sq.ft. of living space on a 0.25 acre lot.

Moving forward to the last quarter again, we saw  only 92 sales taking place. Prices ranged from $265,000 to $1.66m giving an average price of $683,314. For just a little more ($690,000), you could have bought a very appealing 4 bed, 2.5 bath home in the gated community of Fleur Du Mont.

Conclusions

In terms of volume, the San Ramon market appears to have fallen behind. We have to remember that the availability of homes to buy has an effect on how many homes can be sold though.

145 homes were listed for sale in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared with 270 in the first quarter. That is a significant reduction.

Danville shows a similar picture. 244 homes were listed in the first quarter, but only 124 in the fourth quarter.

Overall then, there appears to be a lot of confidence in the Danville market, in particular, although with a greater choice of homes, and probably some more realistic pricing, the San Ramon market would probably have had more activity.

Prices in both of these markets seem remarkably stable and this is likely to continue to be the case for the next few years until we see the end of the effects of short sales and foreclosures in our area.